Let's tke a REAL hard look at the Accuracy of the ReefCast Model in the REAL world.
There is a little story behind these images. When I rolled out ReefCast around the country in 2009. Someone...that competes againest some of the tools I have created PUBLICLY called me out about ReefCast and more or less said I was full of shit.
He took a ReefCast forecast from over 20 miles away in MUCH deeper water and tried to compare it to a buoy in MUCH shallower water.
Instead of saying anything....I posted the next series of images for the next 7 days. This forecast is from the 3 mile x 3 mile square that contained the reporting buoy.
First....Here is the ReefCast and the ReefCast Ensemble for that area.
Then I plotted the results from the buoy. Day by Day. This image is from the final day.
This is overlaid with the Ensemble version to show which days the forecast was stable.
B-I-N-G-O ReefCast KICKES ASS!.
ReefCast said when it knew what was going to happen in the Ensemble version. This is why it is the BEST Offshore Forecasting System available!