NHC meteorologist NOT good at what they do - SaltwaterCentral.Com

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candyman
Posts: 408
Location: hampstead nc
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Thu Sep 13, 2018 1:04 pm
I fortified my home and business for CAT 4 winds when I should have just sand bagged a door or two. Ya'll be safe. I'll be here in Hampstead.  
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est922
Posts: 187
Location: Hampstead NC
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Thu Sep 13, 2018 2:05 pm
Yeah same here. My wife panicked and we are now at 2700 ft above sea level in the mountains of blairsville Ga. What sucks is in not sure when I'll be able to get back for work. Be safe everyone
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tireman
Posts: 726
Location: atlantic beach
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Thu Sep 13, 2018 2:06 pm
not for the technology that they have. they should be able to tell within a couple hundred miles where it will make landfall when it gets close.
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RyanY
Posts: 649
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Thu Sep 13, 2018 3:13 pm
Well I for one would like to thank everyone that did take care to protect their property and leave to keep themselves safe.
Iím working....

We may be here for a few days. The fact that there are less people for us to have to worry about during these times the better.
I know a lot of people think they they are good where they stay and I believe a lot of the properties in our area are safe places.
However no one can control the trees that go through houses. The water that rises into occupied homes, the bee stings, the saw cuts, and the many people that decide that they have been stuck in a house without power for a few days so they want to get out and look around during and right after the storm. You get the point...

So I say thank you, as we are here looking out for you and yours.
Everyone stay safe.
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tanktom
Posts: 489
Location: Scotts Hill
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Thu Sep 13, 2018 3:28 pm
Hurricanes are a damned if you do, damned if you donít situation.
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mojohalibut
Posts: 195
Location: Topsail
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Thu Sep 13, 2018 8:39 pm
Tanktom, they should all be named after women for that very reason  
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surffishn
Posts: 202
Location: Trenton NC.
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Thu Sep 13, 2018 9:01 pm
Sometimes it just much better when they miss it a bit. Just be glad it didn't go the other way. Weather is that just weather and it changes very fast at times. Actually they do a very good job alerting all to potential hazard's.
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candyman
Posts: 408
Location: hampstead nc
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Thu Sep 13, 2018 9:05 pm
4 coastal states have evacuated!!! Power went out here Sloop Point community @2:10 unfortunately they are right about it slowing down!!  
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Rustyone
Posts: 948
Location: Newport
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Fri Sep 14, 2018 1:28 am
tireman wrote:
not for the technology that they have. they should be able to tell within a couple hundred miles where it will make landfall when it gets close.


And I think Captain Dave should be able to tell me what time, date and bait to be using at an exact GPS location to catch a world record Marlin too!

Might want to read this and then tell this gentleman how screwed up he is.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2018/09/12/the-meteorological-strangeness-of-hurricane-florence/#240d035b782c
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Matador
Posts: 4163
Location: Johnston County, NC
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Fri Sep 14, 2018 2:16 am
I think the people analyzing and trying to make a prediction for these events do a fair job at best. Who still remembers Matthew? 24 hours before the rain moved inlet every meteorologist and hurricane expert I watched on television swore it was going to go hard right and out to sea. 19 inches of rain later we were inundated with flooding. Really?? 24 hours ahead of time no one could tell us that it was a better than average possibility to drop more than 2 feet of rain in some places well inland! I know it's not an exact science but we have spent billions on satellite, studies, personnel, modeling, etc. The return on investment has been a little disappointing.
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wavescrash
Posts: 3670
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Fri Sep 14, 2018 3:00 am
Actually they are excellent, in general. Weather forecasting is very hard, that's why it's a cone of uncertainty, and they make it very clear that anything beyond 48 hours is a SWAG at best. The problem is people who just look at a model or map and take it for gospel, or cherry pick the most extreme scenarios to share on social media.  
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zigzag
Posts: 2060
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Fri Sep 14, 2018 11:13 am
est922 wrote:
Yeah same here. My wife panicked and we are now at 2700 ft above sea level in the mountains of blairsville Ga. What sucks is in not sure when I'll be able to get back for work. Be safe everyone


what made you choose blairesville?
  
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est922
Posts: 187
Location: Hampstead NC
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Fri Sep 14, 2018 3:51 pm
zigzag wrote:
est922 wrote:
Yeah same here. My wife panicked and we are now at 2700 ft above sea level in the mountains of blairsville Ga. What sucks is in not sure when I'll be able to get back for work. Be safe everyone


what made you choose blairesville?


I didn't my wife did...her dad has a cabin there so it's a free place to stay with great views.
  
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coastwx
Posts: 435
Location: Oak Island / Garner
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Fri Sep 14, 2018 3:55 pm
wavescrash wrote:
Actually they are excellent, in general. Weather forecasting is very hard, that's why it's a cone of uncertainty, and they make it very clear that anything beyond 48 hours is a SWAG at best. The problem is people who just look at a model or map and take it for gospel, or cherry pick the most extreme scenarios to share on social media.


Thank you. Intensity forecasts are still difficult. This was actually a superb track forecast. 10 days ago the models were showing a NC landfall. Some models were even showing a stall and movement south a week ago. The stall point was off the lower Outer Banks instead of Wrightsville Beach, but the storm was some 2000 miles offshore. Frustration is understood, but it has to be recognized that these forecasters are conservative. If reputable models show a possible Cat 4 as she neared, you cannot take a liberal approach and tell people it will be a run of the mill Cat 1 or 2. It should be noted that model development has incrementally improved track and intensity forecasts. The largest gains in forecast improvement has been the 4+ day forecasts. Also, one of the most important developments of the past 5 year or has been ensemble modeling. Very similar to what was done in ReefCast years ago. You get a good sense of the spread in possible solutions for the track. I think they should do more to show the spread (spaghetti plots) in strength, not just track.

One good things I've noticed with this storm. The new experimental FV-3 global model that NOAA is running now, did much better than the old GFS on track. It did as well as the ECMWF European modeling system that dominates the American model. That will translate to even better track and hopefully intensity forecast as well as winter storms. Another development has been the short term high resolution storm scale model the HRRR. It's what Apps use for the forecast radar on your phone. All models have errors, but this one informing on possible summer thunderstorms several hours prior. Great for boating.
  
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ShockTreatment
Posts: 558
Location: Rural Hall
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Sat Sep 15, 2018 3:03 pm
I think the frustrations with the weather people is that they are wrong a lot. I can not tell you how many times they would call for calm winds and calm seas and I got to pack the boat at 5am and the winds are blowing 15-20 mph. However on the other hand maybe that is calm winds and calm seas to them.  
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ShockTreatment
Posts: 558
Location: Rural Hall
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Sat Sep 15, 2018 3:03 pm
I think the frustrations with the weather people is that they are wrong a lot. I can not tell you how many times they would call for calm winds and calm seas and I got to pack the boat at 5am and the winds are blowing 15-20 mph. However on the other hand maybe that is calm winds and calm seas to them.  
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WildCard
Posts: 1586
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Sat Sep 15, 2018 3:17 pm
Only time you'll ever know what they are gonna do is when its over. Us longtimers know to treat everyone of them with seriousness. I don't remember one of them not having a suprise or two. Over pre-pared is better than the other options. JMO, obviously  
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Curmudgeon
Posts: 1383
Location: Faith/Southport
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Wed Sep 19, 2018 11:30 pm
Ya'll be safe. I'll be here in Hampstead.

How'd that work out for ya ... shrug
  
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seayacharlie
Posts: 423
Location: West of home
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Thu Sep 20, 2018 8:37 am
I have to say I think the NHC did excellent in keeping
everyone informed on the speed, and direction of travel.
With the weather in a constant state of change, and how
that change determines the speed, and direction, how
could a exact forecast be given due to all the changes that
are going to take place that will make changes in the hurricanes path. Keep up the good work so we can prepare
the best we can. Our place has endured several hurricanes now, and each time we stayed tuned to the NHC. We will
continue to do so.
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Bilzo
Posts: 2069
Location: Pittsboro, NC
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Tue Oct 02, 2018 5:38 pm
looking through old threads here...
we were fortunate that we were out of town, in Colorado, leaving just as panic was starting and getting back after it was over.
I think there are a couple opportunities for improvement and honesty in forecasting.

Looking at local media and what people shared via social media:
four days out they were calling for a cat 4 storm to make landfall and truck right up into Raleigh. That was the most prevalent model. All the local media ran with it, because I think, it leads to the highest ratings. What they don't say is "highest probability" is still likely less than a 50% chance, especially 4 days out.
Also - we've all seen that video of the weather channel reporter struggling to stay upright as two guys walk behind him in shorts without issue.

hype sells, and most people buy.

those of us who watch forecasts know how often they change and anything >3 days out is truly an educated guess. When it gets down to 48 hours, we start to put stock in it, and >12 hours we start to really believe it.
  
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coastwx
Posts: 435
Location: Oak Island / Garner
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Tue Oct 02, 2018 7:15 pm
Here is a nice write-up on the track forecast at least with supporting data.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2018/09/26/surprise-american-weather-model-had-best-forecasts-hurricane-florence/?utm_term=.6bd61cb35073

This animation of the forecast is really neat to review.

https://twitter.com/twitter/statuses/1040786165597696000

Some points, as indicated in my first post above, 1) the landfall forecast location was as good as I've seen. The animation only goes back 5 days from landfall (prior Sun morning), but there was a good indication of this same Cape Fear area landfall 7-8 day prior. When we get to a point that landfalls are accurate a week out, that alone is a big accomplishment.

2) The weakest aspect of the forecast was definitely the intensity. I think there is some caution that leads NHC forecasters to go with higher estimates even if models forecast some weakening. Especially when the gulfstream can enhance a storm hours before landfall.

3) The second weak part of the forecast was the stall around Wilmington and then slow walk through SC. This was depicted several days out, but like the comment above, earlier runs 7 to 3 days out had it moving into central NC. Some of the earlier models showed a similar stall, but in central NC instead of the coast. This obviously had a large impact on the rainfall distribution.

I think the whole category metric should be reformed to consider the rainfall and flooding impacts where watershed and storm surge models provide input, not just the wind speed. Also a factor of wind speed x the area that is a measure of total storm energy, but that's, in part, implicit in the watershed and storm surge modeling. This storm weakened at the core, but the wind field expanded and that's why the Morehead area was so hard hit.

Won't get into the media circus. These things are big events and get lots of eyeballs from around the globe. Generally the NHC forecasters have their heads down working on the best forecast the science allows at this point. But things are improving.
  
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Bilzo
Posts: 2069
Location: Pittsboro, NC
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Tue Oct 02, 2018 7:48 pm
That's fair about the media circus. That's not necessarily a result of the forecast. That's more what local media does to drive the news cycle.  
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tireman
Posts: 726
Location: atlantic beach
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Tue Oct 02, 2018 8:07 pm
I guess they do a good job at predicting these storms Im just frustrated that you cant have anything nice at home or the coast anymore because of these f_ king storms tearing everything all to hell every 3 years .
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Curmudgeon
Posts: 1383
Location: Faith/Southport
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Wed Oct 03, 2018 2:08 am
Well, it's for sure Wilmington was at or near the center of the forcast track for at least a week. I wasn't in Wilmington, or Southport, but that it hit there was no surprize. That it stalled so long was, yes. It's not an exact science, but no one should have been caught unawares since even 'social media' predicted yrouble down east ...  
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NHC meteorologist NOT good at what they do - SaltwaterCentral.Com

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