Hurricane Jose, Maria and Lee Path (1:00pm Sept 19th)

 

This graphic shows an approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink), tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (yellow). The orange circle indicates the current position of the center of the tropical cyclone. The black line, when selected, and dots show the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track of the center at the times indicated. The dot indicating the forecast center location will be black if the cyclone is forecast to be tropical and will be white with a black outline if the cyclone is forecast to be extratropical. If only an L is displayed, then the system is forecast to be a remnant low. The letter inside the dot indicates the NHC’s forecast intensity for that time:

D: Tropical Depression – wind speed less than 39 MPH
S: Tropical Storm – wind speed between 39 MPH and 73 MPH
H: Hurricane – wind speed between 74 MPH and 110 MPH
M: Major Hurricane – wind speed greater than 110 MPH

NHC tropical cyclone forecast tracks can be in error. This forecast uncertainty is conveyed by the track forecast “cone”, the solid white and stippled white areas in the graphic. The solid white area depicts the track forecast uncertainty for days 1-3 of the forecast, while the stippled area depicts the uncertainty on days 4-5. Historical data indicate that the entire 5-day path of the center of the tropical cyclone will remain within the cone about 60-70% of the time. To form the cone, a set of imaginary circles are placed along the forecast track at the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h positions, where the size of each circle is set so that it encloses 67% of the previous five years official forecast errors. The cone is then formed by smoothly connecting the area swept out by the set of circles.

 

 

 

It is also important to realize that a tropical cyclone is not a point. Their effects can span many hundreds of miles from the center. The area experiencing hurricane force (one-minute average wind speeds of at least 74 mph) and tropical storm force (one-minute average wind speeds of 39-73 mph) winds can extend well beyond the white areas shown enclosing the most likely track area of the center. The distribution of hurricane and tropical storm force winds in this tropical cyclone can be seen in the Wind History graphic linked above.

Considering the combined forecast uncertainties in track, intensity, and size, the chances that any particular location will experience winds of 34 kt (tropical storm force), 50 kt, or 64 kt (hurricane force) from this tropical cyclone are presented in tabular form for selected locations and forecast positions. This information is also presented in graphical form for the 34 kt, 50 kt, and 64 kt thresholds.

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SAFETY/ATLANTIC OCEAN-GEORGIA-FLORIDA/HAZ OPS/CCGD7 BNM 0010-24

1. The following areas will contain US Navy exercises hazardous to surface vessels in the areas below during subject week (all times are in local unless specified):
A. GUNEX AREA W-137L
26/0000 FEB 24 to 03/2359 MAR 24
30-45N/80-56W
30-45N/80-30W
30-34N/80-30W
30-34N/80-57W
30-36N/80-57W
B. GUNEX AREA W-138L
26/0000 FEB 24 to 03/2359 MAR 24
30-45N/80-30W
30-45N/79-38W
30-34N/79-41W
30-34N/80-30W
C. GUNEX AREA 31J
26/0000 FEB 24 to 03/2359 MAR 24
29-20N/79-50W
29-20N/79-40W
29-10N/79-40W
29-10N/79-50W
D. GUNEX AREA 27C
26/0000 FEB 24 to 03/2359 MAR 24
30-00N/81-00W
30-00N/80-50W
29-50N/80-50W
29-50N/81-00W
E. JSWTR (underwater shallow water training range with hydrophones)
26/0000 FEB 24 to 03/2359 MAR 24
30-28N/80-22W
30-28N/80-00W
30-03N/80-06W
30-03N/80-29W
F. DIPPING AREA 26G
26/0000 FEB 24 to 03/2359 MAR 24
30-00N/80-10W
30-10N/80-10W
30-10N/80-20W
30-00N/80-06W
30-04N/80-20W
CANCEL AT//040459Z MAR 24//

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SAFETY/ATLANTIC OCEAN-GEORGIA-FLORIDA/HAZ OPS/CCGD7 BNM 0010-24

1. The following areas will contain US Navy exercises hazardous to surface vessels in the areas below during subject week (all times are in local unless specified):
A. GUNEX AREA W-137L
26/0000 FEB 24 to 03/2359 MAR 24
30-45N/80-56W
30-45N/80-30W
30-34N/80-30W
30-34N/80-57W
30-36N/80-57W
B. GUNEX AREA W-138L
26/0000 FEB 24 to 03/2359 MAR 24
30-45N/80-30W
30-45N/79-38W
30-34N/79-41W
30-34N/80-30W
C. GUNEX AREA 31J
26/0000 FEB 24 to 03/2359 MAR 24
29-20N/79-50W
29-20N/79-40W
29-10N/79-40W
29-10N/79-50W
D. GUNEX AREA 27C
26/0000 FEB 24 to 03/2359 MAR 24
30-00N/81-00W
30-00N/80-50W
29-50N/80-50W
29-50N/81-00W
E. JSWTR (underwater shallow water training range with hydrophones)
26/0000 FEB 24 to 03/2359 MAR 24
30-28N/80-22W
30-28N/80-00W
30-03N/80-06W
30-03N/80-29W
F. DIPPING AREA 26G
26/0000 FEB 24 to 03/2359 MAR 24
30-00N/80-10W
30-10N/80-10W
30-10N/80-20W
30-00N/80-06W
30-04N/80-20W
CANCEL AT//040459Z MAR 24//

BT

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SAFETY/ATLANTIC OCEAN-GEORGIA-FLORIDA/HAZ OPS/CCGD7 BNM 0010-24

1. The following areas will contain US Navy exercises hazardous to surface vessels in the areas below during subject week (all times are in local unless specified):
A. GUNEX AREA W-137L
26/0000 FEB 24 to 03/2359 MAR 24
30-45N/80-56W
30-45N/80-30W
30-34N/80-30W
30-34N/80-57W
30-36N/80-57W
B. GUNEX AREA W-138L
26/0000 FEB 24 to 03/2359 MAR 24
30-45N/80-30W
30-45N/79-38W
30-34N/79-41W
30-34N/80-30W
C. GUNEX AREA 31J
26/0000 FEB 24 to 03/2359 MAR 24
29-20N/79-50W
29-20N/79-40W
29-10N/79-40W
29-10N/79-50W
D. GUNEX AREA 27C
26/0000 FEB 24 to 03/2359 MAR 24
30-00N/81-00W
30-00N/80-50W
29-50N/80-50W
29-50N/81-00W
E. JSWTR (underwater shallow water training range with hydrophones)
26/0000 FEB 24 to 03/2359 MAR 24
30-28N/80-22W
30-28N/80-00W
30-03N/80-06W
30-03N/80-29W
F. DIPPING AREA 26G
26/0000 FEB 24 to 03/2359 MAR 24
30-00N/80-10W
30-10N/80-10W
30-10N/80-20W
30-00N/80-06W
30-04N/80-20W
CANCEL AT//040459Z MAR 24//

BT

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SAFETY/ATLANTIC OCEAN-GEORGIA-FLORIDA/HAZ OPS/CCGD7 BNM 0010-24

1. The following areas will contain US Navy exercises hazardous to surface vessels in the areas below during subject week (all times are in local unless specified):
A. GUNEX AREA W-137L
26/0000 FEB 24 to 03/2359 MAR 24
30-45N/80-56W
30-45N/80-30W
30-34N/80-30W
30-34N/80-57W
30-36N/80-57W
B. GUNEX AREA W-138L
26/0000 FEB 24 to 03/2359 MAR 24
30-45N/80-30W
30-45N/79-38W
30-34N/79-41W
30-34N/80-30W
C. GUNEX AREA 31J
26/0000 FEB 24 to 03/2359 MAR 24
29-20N/79-50W
29-20N/79-40W
29-10N/79-40W
29-10N/79-50W
D. GUNEX AREA 27C
26/0000 FEB 24 to 03/2359 MAR 24
30-00N/81-00W
30-00N/80-50W
29-50N/80-50W
29-50N/81-00W
E. JSWTR (underwater shallow water training range with hydrophones)
26/0000 FEB 24 to 03/2359 MAR 24
30-28N/80-22W
30-28N/80-00W
30-03N/80-06W
30-03N/80-29W
F. DIPPING AREA 26G
26/0000 FEB 24 to 03/2359 MAR 24
30-00N/80-10W
30-10N/80-10W
30-10N/80-20W
30-00N/80-06W
30-04N/80-20W
CANCEL AT//040459Z MAR 24//

BT

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SAFETY/ATLANTIC OCEAN-GEORGIA-FLORIDA/HAZ OPS/CCGD7 BNM 0010-24

1. The following areas will contain US Navy exercises hazardous to surface vessels in the areas below during subject week (all times are in local unless specified):
A. GUNEX AREA W-137L
26/0000 FEB 24 to 03/2359 MAR 24
30-45N/80-56W
30-45N/80-30W
30-34N/80-30W
30-34N/80-57W
30-36N/80-57W
B. GUNEX AREA W-138L
26/0000 FEB 24 to 03/2359 MAR 24
30-45N/80-30W
30-45N/79-38W
30-34N/79-41W
30-34N/80-30W
C. GUNEX AREA 31J
26/0000 FEB 24 to 03/2359 MAR 24
29-20N/79-50W
29-20N/79-40W
29-10N/79-40W
29-10N/79-50W
D. GUNEX AREA 27C
26/0000 FEB 24 to 03/2359 MAR 24
30-00N/81-00W
30-00N/80-50W
29-50N/80-50W
29-50N/81-00W
E. JSWTR (underwater shallow water training range with hydrophones)
26/0000 FEB 24 to 03/2359 MAR 24
30-28N/80-22W
30-28N/80-00W
30-03N/80-06W
30-03N/80-29W
F. DIPPING AREA 26G
26/0000 FEB 24 to 03/2359 MAR 24
30-00N/80-10W
30-10N/80-10W
30-10N/80-20W
30-00N/80-06W
30-04N/80-20W
CANCEL AT//040459Z MAR 24//

BT

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