RESEARCHERS IDENTIFY CAUSES OF 1979-2003 UNUSUAL STEP-LIKE COOLING OF GLOBAL LOW


RESEARCHERS IDENTIFY CAUSES OF 1979-2003 UNUSUAL STEP-LIKE COOLING OF GLOBAL LOWER STRATOSPHERE


Findings from satellite observations combined with a new NOAA computer model show that a significant cooling of the global lower stratosphere between 1979 and 2003 occurred in steps. Research published this week finds that while human influences led to the overall cooling during the period, natural factors helped modulate the evolution of the cooling.

“This research advances our knowledge of fundamental influences, such as the role of greenhouse gases and volcanic eruptions, that force changes in the Earth’s climate,” said Venkatachalam Ramaswamy, senior scientist at NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, N.J., and lead author of the paper. “The findings, derived from combining observations and numerical modeling studies, improves our understanding of how human and natural forcings cause changes in the Earth’s climate system.”


The lower stratosphere is the region of the Earth’s atmosphere from about 8 to 14 miles above the surface, where ozone plays a critical role in absorbing harmful ultraviolet radiation from the sun. Microwave Sounding Unit data from NOAA’s polar orbiting satellites have shown that the two major volcanic eruptions, El Chichon in 1982 and Pinatubo in 1991, were initially followed by brief warming periods, then later by prolonged cooling periods in the global lower stratosphere.


“The unusual manner in which the cooling of the lower stratosphere evolved between 1979 and 2003 is very likely unique and unprecedented, and has not previously been well understood,” Ramaswamy said. “Climate model simulations show that human influences, namely stratospheric ozone depletion and greenhouse gas increases, and natural factors, namely volcanic aerosols and variations in the sun’s energy output, combined to produce two step-like decreases in the lower stratospheric temperatures, one in the 1980s and the other in the 1990s.”


The simulations successfully replicated the complex observed stages of this temperature change, including the two step-like features marking the transitions of the lower stratosphere to a progressively colder state.


The simulations used a state-of-the-art coupled atmosphere-ocean model, developed at GFDL, one of NOAA’s Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research laboratories. This laboratory has performed world-leading research in climate modeling for more than 50 years. The numerical calculations were performed on the NOAA supercomputer located at GFDL. The results of this research were carried out by a team that included scientists from GFDL, the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, University of Miami and Rutgers University.


The researchers performed a variety of simulations employing combinations of the known changes in various factors, including human-made factors such as ozone depletion and long-lived greenhouse gas increases, and natural mechanisms of climate variability to see how these factors affected the cooling trend. The research indicates that the evolution of the cooling during 1979-2003 results from unusual juxtaposition of human-induced factors, volcanic events and the variations in the sun’s output.


If ozone depletion continues, it would be an even more dominant factor in further lowering the stratospheric temperatures in the future. If there is complete ozone recovery because of the phasing out of the ozone-depleting substances, the stratospheric cooling trend would be governed by the long-lived greenhouse gases (e.g., CO2). Variations in the sun’s output and any potential volcanic activity could affect the pattern. The findings are in a paper titled “Anthropogenic and Natural Influences in the Evolution of Lower Stratospheric Cooling” which was published in this week’s Science magazine.


The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, an agency of the U.S. Commerce Department, is dedicated to enhancing economic security and national safety through the prediction and research of weather and climate-related events and providing environmental stewardship of our nation’s coastal and marine resources. Through the emerging Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS), NOAA is working with its federal partners and 60 countries to develop a global monitoring network that is as integrated as the planet it observes.


RESEARCHERS IDENTIFY CAUSES OF 1979-2003 UNUSUAL STEP-LIKE COOLING OF GLOBAL LOWER STRATOSPHERE


Findings from satellite observations combined with a new NOAA computer model show that a significant cooling of the global lower stratosphere between 1979 and 2003 occurred in steps. Research published this week finds that while human influences led to the overall cooling during the period, natural factors helped modulate the evolution of the cooling.

“This research advances our knowledge of fundamental influences, such as the role of greenhouse gases and volcanic eruptions, that force changes in the Earth’s climate,” said Venkatachalam Ramaswamy, senior scientist at NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, N.J., and lead author of the paper. “The findings, derived from combining observations and numerical modeling studies, improves our understanding of how human and natural forcings cause changes in the Earth’s climate system.”


The lower stratosphere is the region of the Earth’s atmosphere from about 8 to 14 miles above the surface, where ozone plays a critical role in absorbing harmful ultraviolet radiation from the sun. Microwave Sounding Unit data from NOAA’s polar orbiting satellites have shown that the two major volcanic eruptions, El Chichon in 1982 and Pinatubo in 1991, were initially followed by brief warming periods, then later by prolonged cooling periods in the global lower stratosphere.


“The unusual manner in which the cooling of the lower stratosphere evolved between 1979 and 2003 is very likely unique and unprecedented, and has not previously been well understood,” Ramaswamy said. “Climate model simulations show that human influences, namely stratospheric ozone depletion and greenhouse gas increases, and natural factors, namely volcanic aerosols and variations in the sun’s energy output, combined to produce two step-like decreases in the lower stratospheric temperatures, one in the 1980s and the other in the 1990s.”


The simulations successfully replicated the complex observed stages of this temperature change, including the two step-like features marking the transitions of the lower stratosphere to a progressively colder state.


The simulations used a state-of-the-art coupled atmosphere-ocean model, developed at GFDL, one of NOAA’s Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research laboratories. This laboratory has performed world-leading research in climate modeling for more than 50 years. The numerical calculations were performed on the NOAA supercomputer located at GFDL. The results of this research were carried out by a team that included scientists from GFDL, the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, University of Miami and Rutgers University.


The researchers performed a variety of simulations employing combinations of the known changes in various factors, including human-made factors such as ozone depletion and long-lived greenhouse gas increases, and natural mechanisms of climate variability to see how these factors affected the cooling trend. The research indicates that the evolution of the cooling during 1979-2003 results from unusual juxtaposition of human-induced factors, volcanic events and the variations in the sun’s output.


If ozone depletion continues, it would be an even more dominant factor in further lowering the stratospheric temperatures in the future. If there is complete ozone recovery because of the phasing out of the ozone-depleting substances, the stratospheric cooling trend would be governed by the long-lived greenhouse gases (e.g., CO2). Variations in the sun’s output and any potential volcanic activity could affect the pattern. The findings are in a paper titled “Anthropogenic and Natural Influences in the Evolution of Lower Stratospheric Cooling” which was published in this week’s Science magazine.


The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, an agency of the U.S. Commerce Department, is dedicated to enhancing economic security and national safety through the prediction and research of weather and climate-related events and providing environmental stewardship of our nation’s coastal and marine resources. Through the emerging Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS), NOAA is working with its federal partners and 60 countries to develop a global monitoring network that is as integrated as the planet it observes.

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U.S. Coast Guard Navigation Center Website Customer Feedback Survey Privacy Notice

Authority: 14 U.S.C. §504; 14 U.S.C §505; and Executive Order 12862.

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We are eager to understand the primary reason for your visit to the Navigation Center website and how you use it, whether for recreational boating, professional purposes, data requests, educational reasons, or otherwise. Your feedback on the website’s ease of use, ability to find information, and if it’s your primary source for navigation-related information is crucial. We are committed to improving your experience and welcome any suggestions to enhance the site’s usability, information accessibility, and overall efficiency. Your insights are invaluable in helping us better meet your navigation needs.

 

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U.S. Coast Guard Navigation Center Website Customer Feedback Survey Privacy Notice

Authority: 14 U.S.C. §504; 14 U.S.C §505; and Executive Order 12862.

Purpose: To collect data that will be used to analyze and determine the kind and quality of services customers want and expect, as well as their satisfaction with U.S. Coast Guard Navigation Center services. To maintain confidentiality, respondents are advised not to include any personally identifiable information in their responses.

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Disclosure: Furnishing this information is strictly voluntary

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We are eager to understand the primary reason for your visit to the Navigation Center website and how you use it, whether for recreational boating, professional purposes, data requests, educational reasons, or otherwise. Your feedback on the website’s ease of use, ability to find information, and if it’s your primary source for navigation-related information is crucial. We are committed to improving your experience and welcome any suggestions to enhance the site’s usability, information accessibility, and overall efficiency. Your insights are invaluable in helping us better meet your navigation needs.

 

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U.S. Coast Guard Navigation Center Website Customer Feedback Survey Privacy Notice

Authority: 14 U.S.C. §504; 14 U.S.C §505; and Executive Order 12862.

Purpose: To collect data that will be used to analyze and determine the kind and quality of services customers want and expect, as well as their satisfaction with U.S. Coast Guard Navigation Center services. To maintain confidentiality, respondents are advised not to include any personally identifiable information in their responses.

Routine Uses: This survey solicits information that the Coast Guard will use to gauge feedback and improve overall customer service. DHS/ALL/PIA-069 DHS Surveys, Interviews, and Focus Groups provides coverage for this collection.

Disclosure: Furnishing this information is strictly voluntary

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U.S. Coast Guard Navigation Center Website Customer Feedback Survey Privacy Notice

Authority: 14 U.S.C. §504; 14 U.S.C §505; and Executive Order 12862.

Purpose: To collect data that will be used to analyze and determine the kind and quality of services customers want and expect, as well as their satisfaction with U.S. Coast Guard Navigation Center services. To maintain confidentiality, respondents are advised not to include any personally identifiable information in their responses.

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U.S. Coast Guard Navigation Center Website Customer Feedback Survey Privacy Notice

Authority: 14 U.S.C. §504; 14 U.S.C §505; and Executive Order 12862.

Purpose: To collect data that will be used to analyze and determine the kind and quality of services customers want and expect, as well as their satisfaction with U.S. Coast Guard Navigation Center services. To maintain confidentiality, respondents are advised not to include any personally identifiable information in their responses.

Routine Uses: This survey solicits information that the Coast Guard will use to gauge feedback and improve overall customer service. DHS/ALL/PIA-069 DHS Surveys, Interviews, and Focus Groups provides coverage for this collection.

Disclosure: Furnishing this information is strictly voluntary

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SCHEDULED/SAN JUAN HARBOR – SAN JUAN, PUERTO RICO/ATON/SEC SJ BNM 0011-24

1. THE FOLLOWING AIDS HAVE BEEN TEMPORARILY RELOCATED TO FACILITATE MAINTENANCE DREDGE OPERATIONS:
a. Army Terminal Channel Buoy 2 (LLNR 30850) Set at MPP 18-26-46.499N 066-06
-35.544
b. Army Terminal Channel Buoy 3 (LLNR 30855) Set at MPP 18-26-46.472N 066-06
-28.968
c. Army Terminal Channel Buoy 5 (LLNR 30875) Set at MPP 18-26-27.328N 066-06
-28.155
d. Army Terminal Channel Buoy 7 (LLNR 30885) Set at MPP 18-26-05.791N 066-06
-25.774
2. MARINERS ARE RQST TO TRANSIT WITH CAUTION AND MAKE ANY REPORTS TO THE USCG.
CANCEL AT//282310Z MAR 24//

BT

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SCHEDULED/SAN JUAN HARBOR – SAN JUAN, PUERTO RICO/ATON/SEC SJ BNM 0011-24

1. THE FOLLOWING AIDS HAVE BEEN TEMPORARILY RELOCATED TO FACILITATE MAINTENANCE DREDGE OPERATIONS:
a. Army Terminal Channel Buoy 2 (LLNR 30850) Set at MPP 18-26-46.499N 066-06
-35.544
b. Army Terminal Channel Buoy 3 (LLNR 30855) Set at MPP 18-26-46.472N 066-06
-28.968
c. Army Terminal Channel Buoy 5 (LLNR 30875) Set at MPP 18-26-27.328N 066-06
-28.155
d. Army Terminal Channel Buoy 7 (LLNR 30885) Set at MPP 18-26-05.791N 066-06
-25.774
2. MARINERS ARE RQST TO TRANSIT WITH CAUTION AND MAKE ANY REPORTS TO THE USCG.
CANCEL AT//282310Z MAR 24//

BT

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SCHEDULED/SAN JUAN HARBOR – SAN JUAN, PUERTO RICO/ATON/SEC SJ BNM 0011-24

1. THE FOLLOWING AIDS HAVE BEEN TEMPORARILY RELOCATED TO FACILITATE MAINTENANCE DREDGE OPERATIONS:
a. Army Terminal Channel Buoy 2 (LLNR 30850) Set at MPP 18-26-46.499N 066-06
-35.544
b. Army Terminal Channel Buoy 3 (LLNR 30855) Set at MPP 18-26-46.472N 066-06
-28.968
c. Army Terminal Channel Buoy 5 (LLNR 30875) Set at MPP 18-26-27.328N 066-06
-28.155
d. Army Terminal Channel Buoy 7 (LLNR 30885) Set at MPP 18-26-05.791N 066-06
-25.774
2. MARINERS ARE RQST TO TRANSIT WITH CAUTION AND MAKE ANY REPORTS TO THE USCG.
CANCEL AT//282310Z MAR 24//

BT

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SCHEDULED/SAN JUAN HARBOR – SAN JUAN, PUERTO RICO/ATON/SEC SJ BNM 0011-24

1. THE FOLLOWING AIDS HAVE BEEN TEMPORARILY RELOCATED TO FACILITATE MAINTENANCE DREDGE OPERATIONS:
a. Army Terminal Channel Buoy 2 (LLNR 30850) Set at MPP 18-26-46.499N 066-06
-35.544
b. Army Terminal Channel Buoy 3 (LLNR 30855) Set at MPP 18-26-46.472N 066-06
-28.968
c. Army Terminal Channel Buoy 5 (LLNR 30875) Set at MPP 18-26-27.328N 066-06
-28.155
d. Army Terminal Channel Buoy 7 (LLNR 30885) Set at MPP 18-26-05.791N 066-06
-25.774
2. MARINERS ARE RQST TO TRANSIT WITH CAUTION AND MAKE ANY REPORTS TO THE USCG.
CANCEL AT//282310Z MAR 24//

BT

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SCHEDULED/SAN JUAN HARBOR – SAN JUAN, PUERTO RICO/ATON/SEC SJ BNM 0011-24

1. THE FOLLOWING AIDS HAVE BEEN TEMPORARILY RELOCATED TO FACILITATE MAINTENANCE DREDGE OPERATIONS:
a. Army Terminal Channel Buoy 2 (LLNR 30850) Set at MPP 18-26-46.499N 066-06
-35.544
b. Army Terminal Channel Buoy 3 (LLNR 30855) Set at MPP 18-26-46.472N 066-06
-28.968
c. Army Terminal Channel Buoy 5 (LLNR 30875) Set at MPP 18-26-27.328N 066-06
-28.155
d. Army Terminal Channel Buoy 7 (LLNR 30885) Set at MPP 18-26-05.791N 066-06
-25.774
2. MARINERS ARE RQST TO TRANSIT WITH CAUTION AND MAKE ANY REPORTS TO THE USCG.
CANCEL AT//282310Z MAR 24//

BT

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