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Posts: 605
Location: The LA
Location: The LA
Thu Aug 31, 2017 5:20 pm
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/08/31/two-new-tropical-threats-are-taking-shape-in-the-gulf-of-mexico-and-atlantic-ocean/
I watch these storms pretty closely. Irma could be the real deal. I'd make a plan now.
I watch these storms pretty closely. Irma could be the real deal. I'd make a plan now.
Posts: 846
Location: Morehead City, NC
Location: Morehead City, NC
Thu Aug 31, 2017 5:51 pm
Too bad that the Washington Post, which is not worth much on a good day, won't let you see the link. It is going to be a bad storm and there are a lot of models about where it will go. Bad storm yes! Washington Post, just another CNN.
Posts: 118
Thu Aug 31, 2017 6:02 pm
Irma is too far away to worry about yet. If you live near the coast and don't already have a plan you are way behind the curve. Anything over 72 hr. projection is a guess. IMHO
Posts: 605
Location: The LA
Location: The LA
Fri Sep 01, 2017 2:09 am
| fishangel wrote: |
| Too bad that the Washington Post, which is not worth much on a good day, won't let you see the link. It is going to be a bad storm and there are a lot of models about where it will go. Bad storm yes! Washington Post, just another CNN. |
https://www.google.com/amp/www.foxnews.com/world/2017/08/31/irma-rapidly-strengthens-to-category-2-hurricane-forecast-to-be-extremely-dangerous.amp.html
There you are. More believable now??
Maybe if we rename it "Donald" it will blow hard, accomplish nothing, and be history in a few weeks...
Posts: 444
Location: Oak Island / Garner
Location: Oak Island / Garner
Fri Sep 01, 2017 4:00 am
LOL. Don was quite an impotent storm.
Certainly something to keep a close eye on. 5 day hurricane forecast have become much much better. 10 days is a stretch still, but you can start to see the general pattern emerge that will steer Irma. Anytime a major hurricane is likely going to be somewhere off the SE coast with potential blocking high to the north that would drive it into the CONUS, it's worth taking notice. I got a little worried about Matthew last year something like 7-8 days out, so went and bought a generator. Sure enough, a few days later, none were to be found and we ended up losing power for 3-4 days.
Certainly something to keep a close eye on. 5 day hurricane forecast have become much much better. 10 days is a stretch still, but you can start to see the general pattern emerge that will steer Irma. Anytime a major hurricane is likely going to be somewhere off the SE coast with potential blocking high to the north that would drive it into the CONUS, it's worth taking notice. I got a little worried about Matthew last year something like 7-8 days out, so went and bought a generator. Sure enough, a few days later, none were to be found and we ended up losing power for 3-4 days.
Posts: 294
Location: Walnut Cove
Location: Walnut Cove
Fri Sep 01, 2017 5:05 am
| jasonafox wrote: | ||
https://www.google.com/amp/www.foxnews.com/world/2017/08/31/irma-rapidly-strengthens-to-category-2-hurricane-forecast-to-be-extremely-dangerous.amp.html There you are. More believable now?? Maybe if we rename it "Donald" it will blow hard, accomplish nothing, and be history in a few weeks... |
Going with that naming scheme, Barack would have been a good name to change Harvey to since it hung around forever and made a mess of everything.
Posts: 14
Fri Sep 01, 2017 6:30 am
| kicker30 wrote: | ||||
Going with that naming scheme, Barack would have been a good name to change Harvey to since it hung around forever and made a mess of everything. |
Now thats funny right there.
Posts: 25
Location: S.W. Ga/St James Island Fl
Location: S.W. Ga/St James Island Fl
Fri Sep 01, 2017 7:02 am
| kicker30 wrote: | ||||
Going with that naming scheme, Barack would have been a good name to change Harvey to since it hung around forever and made a mess of everything. |
Posts: 412
Fri Sep 01, 2017 9:18 am
| kicker30 wrote: | ||||
Going with that naming scheme, Barack would have been a good name to change Harvey to since it hung around forever and made a mess of everything. |
Kicker, I do believe you took jasonfox to school
Posts: 605
Location: The LA
Location: The LA
Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:14 am
| dontcatch wrote: | ||||||
Kicker, I do believe you took jasonfox to school |
Schooled on what? Plagarism? Deflection? Passing the blame? The orange clown would be so proud.
Posts: 4196
Location: Johnston County, NC
Location: Johnston County, NC
Fri Sep 01, 2017 12:37 pm
Plagarism? Deflection?
Huh?
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Huh?
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Posts: 709
Location: Elm City
Location: Elm City
Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:30 pm
MAD event in Southport next Saturday, Irma hasn't heard about it, she'll turn! 
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Posts: 1815
Location: Surf City
Location: Surf City
Fri Sep 01, 2017 3:39 pm
look at wavecast it is what i use to watch the storms. It has it coming this way, hope its wrong this time....sorry dave!!!!!
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Posts: 4196
Location: Johnston County, NC
Location: Johnston County, NC
Fri Sep 01, 2017 5:00 pm
Check out wavecast. It could definitely change but right now it looks like a close call or hit for the SE US. And check out the gulf. Something blowing up very near to SE Texas. Frame 57.
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Posts: 2231
Sat Sep 02, 2017 9:04 pm
GFS model out 8 days. Not good.
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SeaHunter 41
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Location: Oak Island NC
Location: Oak Island NC
Sun Sep 03, 2017 2:09 am
tropicaltidbits.com has a good GFS guestimater site for Irma. Real early in program but now show a direct hit on SE NC with a millabar guess at 887=26.04 inchs on Monday Sept 11. Hugo near Charlotte was at 27.24 inchs. Euro model shows a more OTS curve to the right than NOAA also. Mid week upper winds aloft should give a good clue
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There I was 40,000 ft one burnin and one turnin
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There I was 40,000 ft one burnin and one turnin
1999 24 Albie-16 Tracker-16 Lowe -12 jonboat-17 Mohawk-10 canoe
Posts: 605
Location: The LA
Location: The LA
Sun Sep 03, 2017 5:21 am
These models are better than they used to be. If you watch these storms closely, nowadays, the NHC more or less gets the track right on their advisories. The intensity forecasts are still a crapshoot, but in general, the tracks arent that off. Science is a good thing.
The major models are more or less in agreement now, which is strange in that they almost never do this far out, and they put it coming right up the Cape Fear River. Just by the angle of approach of this thing, a few degrees one way or another can mean hundreds of miles of variance in the actual landfall, but the 5 AM advisory does not look good for the islands or the East Coast. An African wave that develops south of 20N lat, with a blocking high in place over the Atlantic, is generally a recipe for a US hit.
All joking and politics aside, God bless everyone. Hope I'm wrong, but I wouldn't wait until Friday to figure out a gameplan to cut and run....
The major models are more or less in agreement now, which is strange in that they almost never do this far out, and they put it coming right up the Cape Fear River. Just by the angle of approach of this thing, a few degrees one way or another can mean hundreds of miles of variance in the actual landfall, but the 5 AM advisory does not look good for the islands or the East Coast. An African wave that develops south of 20N lat, with a blocking high in place over the Atlantic, is generally a recipe for a US hit.
All joking and politics aside, God bless everyone. Hope I'm wrong, but I wouldn't wait until Friday to figure out a gameplan to cut and run....
Posts: 12399
Location: Cape Fear, NC
Location: Cape Fear, NC
Sun Sep 03, 2017 5:40 am
I just watched WaveCast.....that is not good. It is also showing in reefcast. Boys....start planning.
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Posts: 444
Location: Oak Island / Garner
Location: Oak Island / Garner
Sun Sep 03, 2017 5:57 am
Jason is on it. GFS out just now was consistent with the previous run and the European model last night. This would be a devastating landfall for Oak Island, Wilmington, Carolina and Wrightsville Beach. Still a ways out and any small shift would have a big impact of the path, but it is time to make plans.
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Location: Oak Island NC
Location: Oak Island NC
Sun Sep 03, 2017 8:40 am
Dang right devastating . These storms push water like a freighter in front right side. Hazel had a 17ft wall of water at OKI . Stoves/beds/springs etc washed just across Davis canal at 3rd street. Long about Wed or Thur will be praying for a nice upper level jet stream. ADDS a old aviation site has good projected winds aloft forecast java. Hugo winds aloft at FL 300 from CHS to SDF were at that time 150 degrees at 50 kts all the to Louisville. Watched this wind on a 737 FMS not knowing how bad it would get.
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There I was 40,000 ft one burnin and one turnin
1999 24 Albie-16 Tracker-16 Lowe -12 jonboat-17 Mohawk-10 canoe
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There I was 40,000 ft one burnin and one turnin
1999 24 Albie-16 Tracker-16 Lowe -12 jonboat-17 Mohawk-10 canoe
Posts: 605
Location: The LA
Location: The LA
Sun Sep 03, 2017 3:06 pm
18z model runs have shifted west. Almost a certainty now we will have a landfall or a very close shave somewhere in the SE US late next weekend into early next week. The center of the "spaghetti" isn't dead on the Cape Fear for now, but we are now firmly on the right-hand side, which isn't ideal either. In my opinion, it's splitting hairs at this point.
I'm kinda thinking the broadcast news is going to jump onboard with this tonight or tomorrow morning, so now would be a great time to buy some plywood, a generator, bread, and water. And several cases of beer....
I'm kinda thinking the broadcast news is going to jump onboard with this tonight or tomorrow morning, so now would be a great time to buy some plywood, a generator, bread, and water. And several cases of beer....
Posts: 2231
Sun Sep 03, 2017 7:13 pm
The last run of the Euro model has it turning due north and missing us, but it is 8-9 days out. Way too early to know much for sure.
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SeaHunter 41
17 Mitzi Skiff
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Posts: 605
Location: The LA
Location: The LA
Sun Sep 03, 2017 7:35 pm
| aftergolf wrote: |
| The last run of the Euro model has it turning due north and missing us, but it is 8-9 days out. Way too early to know much for sure. |
Let's hope.... it will be a close call at the least.
Posts: 605
Location: The LA
Location: The LA
Mon Sep 04, 2017 5:49 am
Looking much better for NC/SC this morning, but much worse for Bahamas and Florida. Appears almost certain there won't be a lucky recurve back out to sea. A Gulf of Mexico hit is now appearing at least possible. This one definitely bears monitoring, as its about to hit an Eastern Caribbean Sea with abnormally high Ocean Heat Content that should allow it to intensify.
Posts: 318
Location: Southport
Location: Southport
Tue Sep 05, 2017 8:19 am
| jasonafox wrote: |
| 18z model runs have shifted west. Almost a certainty now we will have a landfall or a very close shave somewhere in the SE US late next weekend into early next week. The center of the "spaghetti" isn't dead on the Cape Fear for now, but we are now firmly on the right-hand side, which isn't ideal either. In my opinion, it's splitting hairs at this point.
I'm kinda thinking the broadcast news is going to jump onboard with this tonight or tomorrow morning, so now would be a great time to buy some plywood, a generator, bread, and water. And several cases of beer.... |
I presume that the primary purpose of the generator is to power the refrigerator that keeps the beer cold . . .
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The Yellow Rose
Posts: 605
Location: The LA
Location: The LA
Tue Sep 05, 2017 9:37 am
| Oldcabdriver wrote: | ||
I presume that the primary purpose of the generator is to power the refrigerator that keeps the beer cold . . . |
What else is a generator for??
Looking more and more like we are going to dodge the bullet in NC/SC, but our friends in Florida, the Keys, and the Caribbean not so much. Probably gonna be retiring two storm names in a row....
Posts: 117
Location: Hubert
Location: Hubert
Tue Sep 05, 2017 4:53 pm
Yup, Florida is in a world of hurt if the storm hits the way its predicted to. Usually they have the option of switching coast to wait it out but this one looks like it is going to eat the whole state up.
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